ANALYSIS-Ethiopia, Eritrea war threatens region
NAIROBI, Feb 24 (Reuters) – As the armies of Ethiopia and Eritrea slam into each other along their common frontier, the shock waves are already being felt around the entire region.
From Somalia to Sudan, Kenya to Djibouti, fears are rising that the continent’s latest conflict will spread beyond the two countries, undermine the Horn of Africa’s fragile hopes of rehabilitation and provoke an arms race in the region.
“Ethiopia is like the heart of the Horn,” Kenya’s Foreign Minister Bonaya Godana told Reuters in an interview.
“We thought the Horn was beginning to heal…but the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has imported into the region sophisticated military hardware.”
“It has very serious implications,” he said.
Both Ethiopia and Eritrea have rearmed heavily since fighting first broke out along their contested frontier in May last year, spending hundreds of millions of dollars between them on high-tech military hardware including modern fighter planes.
Godana said that rearmament could start a regional arms race “even if the conflict ends tomorrow”.
Just last year, Ethiopia and Eritrea were hailed as among the leaders of an African renaissance, rebuilding their countries after decades of civil war which ended with the fall of Ethiopian dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.
But hopes of a regional recovery appear to have been dashed by their conflict, which resumed on February 6 after an eight-month lull.
Sudan is in the midst of a 15-year civil war between the Moslem and Arab north and mainly Christian or animist south. War-related famine is a regular problem, and the conflict has claimed an estimated 1.5 million lives.
Somalia dissolved into anarchy in 1991 when Mohamed Siad Barre was ousted from power. The country is carved up into clan-based fiefdoms, fighting is an almost every day occurrence, and aid agencies warn that famine could strike again this year.
Now, diplomats say Somalia’s fragile hope of regeneration is being undermined by the Horn’s latest war. They accuse both Ethiopia and Eritrea of arming rival Somali factions as they struggle for regional influence.
Local elders say a large ship containing armoured personnel carriers, assault rifles and ammunition arrived in the southern Somali port of Merca this week, and accuse Eritrea of arming Mogadishu faction leader Hussein Mohamed Aideed.
Ethiopia is also accused by local elders of arming the northeastern administration in Puntland, and supplying ammunition to Mohamed Said Hersi, better known as General Morgan, who is fighting to keep control of the southern port of Kismayu against militia backed by Aideed.
Both sides deny the charges.
In Sudan, the breakup of the Ethiopian-Eritrean alliance has strengthened the hand of the Khartoum government, analysts say.
The two countries had been at the heart of an alliance of regional states lined up against Khartoum with the backing of the United States. They had also provided support for the rebels of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army.
But now Ethiopian relations with Khartoum are thawing, and the government of Sudan will be quick to exploit the change.
“This is a windfall gain for the Khartoum government,” said Moustapha Hassouna, a writer on African affairs.
The Red Sea state of Djibouti, whose port has become a major conduit for Ethiopian trade since war began, is another winner from Ethiopia’s war with Eritrea.
But in a region where ethnic groups like Oromos, Afars and Somalis straddle borders, there could be many more losers.
The United Nations information service reported earlier this month that both Ethiopia and Eritrea were supporting each other’s opposition movements.
So far, these opposition movements may be small and not very significant. More significant is the message the war is sending to Africa and the rest of the world.
“Once again, power and prestige goes through the barrel of a gun,” said Hassouna. “It is a very bad start for 1999.”
(C) Reuters Limited 1999.
Simon Denyer 
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